News Analysis: China set to remain global economic anchor under next 5-year blueprint

BEIJING, Oct. 23 (Xinhua) -- China's development roadmap for the next five years has begun to emerge following the conclusion of a key Party meeting on Thursday, with fresh policy pledges poised to reaffirm the country as a crucial anchor of stability and source of opportunities for the global economy.

At the four-day meeting -- the fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) -- participants deliberated over and adopted the Recommendations of the CPC Central Committee for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development.

While the final plan is expected to be unveiled in March 2026, with the National People's Congress, China's top legislature, reviewing and approving it, a communique released after the session outlines major objectives and measures over the next five years, including steering the development of new quality productive forces, building a robust domestic market and promoting high-standard opening up.

China's new blueprint is being closely watched globally. Bloomberg reported that the outcome of the meeting would "not only set the course for the world's second-largest economy for the rest of the decade, but is likely to reverberate globally, too."

ENDURING GLOBAL FOOTPRINT

During the outgoing 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), China has contributed about 30 percent to global economic expansion. Its goods and services imports totaled over 20 trillion yuan (about 2.82 trillion U.S. dollars) in 2024, creating substantial market opportunities for international businesses.

Meanwhile, the country's exports of wind and solar products have promoted the global low-carbon transition, estimated to have helped other countries reduce carbon emissions by about 4.1 billion tonnes since 2021.

For the next five years, achieving significant advancements in high-quality development is a key objective set by the CPC Central Committee. Thursday's communique emphasized that China should build a modernized industrial system and reinforce the foundations of the real economy.

Commenting on the new policy mix, Liu Qiao, an economist and dean of the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University, predicted that China would remain the largest contributor to global growth and global trade.

Amid mounting global economic uncertainty, China's planning will inject confidence into world markets by maintaining a stable domestic economy, accelerating technological innovation and fostering international cooperation, said Tian Xuan, president of the National Institute of Financial Research of Tsinghua University.

Since implementing its first five-year plan in 1953, China has undergone historic transformation. It has vaulted from a nation that once struggled to produce essentials like matches and screws to becoming the world's largest manufacturing powerhouse and second-largest consumer market. China is now the primary trade partner of over 150 countries and regions.

"China's economic development has not only changed the country itself but also influenced the world," said Wang Yiming, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.

As the world's most stable engine of growth, China's expanded imports create vast market opportunities. Meanwhile, its exports of affordable, high-quality goods help secure global price stability and improve welfare worldwide, Wang said.

DRIVING FUTURE GROWTH

The 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030) will be critical as the country works to reinforce the foundations and push ahead on all fronts toward basically achieving socialist modernization by 2035, and it will thus serve as a key link between the past and the future, according to the communique.

One of China's 2035 goals is to "substantially grow the per capita GDP to be on par with that of a mid-level developed country."

"China will focus on delivering resilient, stable and inclusive growth over the next five years," said Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura.

Since 2021, the Chinese economy has maintained a steady average annual growth rate of around 5.5 percent.

Economists believe China's new dynamism will likely be driven by breakthroughs in technological innovation, as Thursday's communique shows the CPC Central Committee targets substantial improvements in scientific and technological self-reliance and strength over the next five years.

"Progress in technology will be the primary engine supporting China's medium-to-high speed economic growth in the future," said Liao Qun, a researcher at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China.

Liao highlighted future breakthroughs in digital and green technologies, including generative AI, new energy vehicles and the low-altitude economy. He also emphasized the comprehensive digital transformation of traditional industries.

The communique also shows China's determination to leverage the consumption potential of its vast population -- over 1.4 billion people, including a middle-income group exceeding 400 million.

Consumption contributed around 60 percent annually to China's economic growth from 2021 to 2024, a trend expected to intensify as people's incomes rise and service industries such as healthcare, education and elderly care expand.

Experts further note that China's accelerated industrial upgrading and evolving consumer market, driven by high-level opening up, will create significant new opportunities for the rest of the world.

China has eliminated foreign investment restrictions in its manufacturing sector, expanded market access in telecom, healthcare and education, and established 22 pilot free trade zones alongside the Hainan Free Trade Port.

The country's continued opening-up endeavors are set to deliver mutual benefits. "Given the size of its economy and its growing role in global value chains, further opening up is not only critical for China to achieve high-quality development but also undoubtedly a boon for other countries," Liu said.